‘Boring 20s’ might be exactly what Scotland needs
This article was first published in The Herald on 29 June 2026
They say history repeats itself, but there is also evidence to the contrary.
At the start of the 2020s, the optimists among us may have hoped to enjoy a new ‘Roaring Twenties’, recalling the widespread economic growth and prosperity of the Jazz Age.
Those hopes were quickly dashed.
Instead of rising living standards, it was inflation that rocketed to a 41-year high, following the quadruple-whammy between 2020 and 2022 of Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Liz Truss mini-Budget. The fall-out continued in 2023 as energy bills reached eye-watering levels, almost doubling for businesses.
Without being too gloomy, periods of respite in the 2020s have, to date, been few and far between.
If I had to pick one moment when Scotland’s businesses may have seen a glimmer of hope, it was around two years ago, in the middle of 2024.
Back then, inflation had fallen to the Bank of England’s 2.0% target for the first time since July 2021.
Depending on your politics, the arrival in July of a new government at Westminster will have also been a cause for optimism for some.
Closer to home, singing superstar Taylor Swift arrived in Edinburgh with her record-breaking Eras Tour, generating around £77million for Edinburgh’s economy over three nights. With a return of that scale, perhaps the Scottish Government should consider a permanent Taylor Swift stimulus package.
Two years on, to paraphrase Ms Swift, any positivity has been well and truly shaken off.
Since the summer of 2024, cost pressures have taken a severe toll on business confidence. Higher employment costs, stubbornly high energy prices, and the burden of business rates have all added to the pressure.
The impact was laid bare in our latest survey, which found 80% of participating businesses had reported increased pressure from higher costs over the previous 12 to 18 months.
They also told us how they responded: half have raised prices, a third abandoned investment plans, and almost a quarter held off on the creation of jobs.
If that does not set the alarm bells ringing, it should. Business investment is a critical part of the economy, and its absence will be felt in communities across Scotland.
Not all responsibility for rising costs lies at Holyrood or Westminster, but both governments have choices about whether domestic policy adds to the pressure or creates the conditions for businesses to invest, hire and grow.
Different sectors will always have different priorities. However, we consistently hear that the reform of business taxes, a more competitive tax system, a reduced regulatory burden, long-term policy stability and affordable energy would go a long way towards improving confidence and unlocking investment.
Businesses do not expect governments to solve every challenge they face. But confidence is shaped by whether firms can see a path to lower costs, greater certainty, and future growth.
Recently, there have been some signs that progress is possible.
On business rates, the recently-returned First Minister John Swinney has pledged to “engage urgently” to identify steps to address concerns, and he has also signalled amendments to Fresh Start relief to accelerate investment in our struggling city centres.
At Westminster, we will soon have a new Prime Minister, and a chance to reset.
If Sir Keir Starmer’s successor is looking for an early and decisive way to reinvigorate the national economy and move the needle on business confidence, they have a golden opportunity through early reform of the North Sea windfall tax.
The case for a shift in emphasis from both governments on oil and gas has only been strengthened by the apparent progress in peace talks between the US and Iran.
This has led to falling oil prices which should soon be reflected at the pumps, helping to offset the impact of high energy bills.
International diplomacy has also helped another key pillar of the Scottish economy in recent weeks, with the removal of US tariffs on Scotch whisky, and the early introduction of a trade deal with India that will reduce tariffs on our national drink.
Scotland’s businesses have learned in recent years not to get their hopes up.
History can and does repeat itself, and few would bet against yet another economic shock being just around the corner.
But if not, and if we can now focus on a period of stability and growth with the support of both our governments, then whispers of optimism may soon grow louder.
Perhaps we are back where we were in the summer of 2024, looking forward tentatively with hope.
The coming years will not resemble the Roaring Twenties, but this may be no bad thing. After all, the 1920s ended with a crash on Wall Street that was followed by a decade of depression.
Following recent experiences, many Scottish businesses would be content with a boring rather than roaring end to the decade – provided it is accompanied by the stability and confidence needed to deliver growth.
